我院唐世平教授和他的合作者，李辉副教授、熊易寒副教授最近连续发表两篇英文关于石油（的地理区位）和族群战争爆发之间的关系的文章。其中的一篇发表在我院主办的Chinese Political Science Review杂志上。另一篇发表在国际政治一流杂志Security Studies（SSCI刊物）。两篇文章都是当期的开篇文章。这两篇文章是唐世平教授和他的团队在族群政治领域的系列研究的阶段性最新成果。
结合定量与定性分析，并且比较定量和定性分析的结果，唐世平教授他们的研究基本上提供了关于石油和族群战争的爆发的关系的近乎盖棺定论的（definitive）回答。通过整合族群的地理信息和油田的地理信息，他们的定量和定性相结合的研究表明，石油的地理区位才是真正让石油和族群战争的爆发联系起来的关键。具体地说，如果石油发现在少数族群的核心聚集地区，石油会显著增加族群战争爆发的危险。而如果石油发现在多数族群的核心聚集地区或者是族群分布比较均匀，则石油不会显著增加族群战争爆发的危险。相比既有的一些研究，他们的研究更加精细。他们的研究推翻，或者至少质疑，了此前关于“resource curse（资源诅咒）”或者是“oil curse（石油诅咒）”的许多不够精确的提法。
他们发表在Security Studies的这篇文章同时还是一篇方法论的文章。通过比较定量和定性分析的结果，唐世平教授他们的研究不仅确立了石油的地理区位如何增加族群战争爆发的危险的核心机制，而且进一步从机制水平批评了此前关于石油和族群战争爆发之间的联系的诸多假说或者定量结果。他们的这篇文章还对如何选择案例来做比较案例分析做出了有益的讨论。
显然，唐世平教授和他的团队的研究对于管理族群政治以防止族群战争的爆发有着非常显著的政策意义。
Li and Tang. 2017. “Location, Location, Location: The Ethno-Geography of Oil and the Onset of Ethnic War,”Chinese Political Science Review
ABSTRACT
Challenging and improving upon existing studies, we develop a more integrated and fine-grained theory regarding oil and the onset of ethnic war and present systematic quantitative evidences for our theory. We contend that it is the ethno-geographical location of oil rather than oil income, rent, or relative distribution/concentration that really connects oil with the onset of ethnic war. When the core territory of a minority group has a significant amount of oil, the minority group is more likely to rebel against a central state dominated by another group and oil is strongly associated with the onset of ethnic war. In contrast, when oil is located with the core territory of a dominant majority group or that a country has a fairly even distribution of ethnic groups and no group can lay an exclusive claim to oil, oil is not associated with a higher risk of ethnic war. We construct two new indicators regarding the ethno-geographical location of oil from two different sources and test our hypotheses with the two new indicators. Statistical results strongly support our hypotheses. Together with evidences from case studies with process-tracing that demonstrate the mechanisms singled out by our theory really did operate in driving ethnic wars in an accompanying paper, we provide a more complete and close-to-definitive answer to the question whether and how oil is associated with the onset of ethnic war. Our exercise also points to a broader theory regarding the ethno-geography of commodity-type mineral resource with the onset of ethnic war.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41111-017-0062-2
Tang et al 2017. “Does Oil Cause Ethnic War? Comparing Evidence from Process-tracing with Quantitative Results,”Security Studies
ABSTRACT
This article contributes both empirically and methodologically. Empirically, we seek to advance our understanding of an important puzzle: does oil cause ethnic war? Methodologically, we seek to identify more precisely the different weaknesses and strengths of the quantitative approach and case studies with process-tracing by explicitly comparing results from these two approaches on the same empirical question. We thus subject the statistical association between the ethnogeographical location of oil and the onset of ethnic war to test with process-tracing. Examining several pathway cases, we find that oil has rarely been a deep cause of ethnic war. Instead, the ethnogeographical location of oil either reignites dormant conflict that has deeper roots in ethnic resentment and hatred or intensifies ongoing conflict, mostly by facilitating the operation of two interconnected mechanisms. Our study echoes the notion that quantitative exercises alone often cannot establish specific causal mechanisms or how contextual factors impact the operation of these mechanisms, and it is precisely on these two key fronts that qualitative exercises possess critical advantages. Hence, quantitative methods and qualitative methods are complementary rather than competitive. Our study also yields important policy implications for preventing and managing ethnic conflict in countries with rich mineral resource.
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306392
